dor_id: 4120346

506.#.#.a: Público

590.#.#.d: Los artículos enviados a la revista "Atmósfera", se juzgan por medio de un proceso de revisión por pares

510.0.#.a: Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT); Sistema Regional de Información en Línea para Revistas Científicas de América Latina, el Caribe, España y Portugal (Latindex); Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO); SCOPUS, Web Of Science (WoS); SCImago Journal Rank (SJR)

561.#.#.u: https://www.atmosfera.unam.mx/

650.#.4.x: Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra

336.#.#.b: article

336.#.#.3: Artículo de Investigación

336.#.#.a: Artículo

351.#.#.6: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/index

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351.#.#.a: Artículos

harvesting_group: RevistasUNAM

270.1.#.p: Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

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270.#.#.d: MX

270.1.#.d: México

590.#.#.b: Concentrador

883.#.#.u: https://revistas.unam.mx/catalogo/

883.#.#.a: Revistas UNAM

590.#.#.a: Coordinación de Difusión Cultural

883.#.#.1: https://www.publicaciones.unam.mx/

883.#.#.q: Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial

850.#.#.a: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

856.4.0.u: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/52784/46716

100.1.#.a: García-cueto, O. Rafael; López-velázquez, J. Ernesto; Bojórquez-morales, Gonzalo; Santillán-soto, Néstor; Flores-jiménez, David Enrique

524.#.#.a: García-cueto, O. Rafael, et al. (2021). Trends in temperature extremes in selected growing cities of Mexico under a non-stationary climate. Atmósfera; Vol. 34 No. 3, 2021; 233-254. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/4120346

720.#.#.a: United Nations Development ProgramNational Institute of Ecology and Climate Change of Mexico

245.1.0.a: Trends in temperature extremes in selected growing cities of Mexico under a non-stationary climate

502.#.#.c: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

561.1.#.a: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM

264.#.0.c: 2021

264.#.1.c: 2021-06-30

653.#.#.a: extreme temperatures; non-stationary climate; generalized extreme value distribution; return periods; cities of Mexico

506.1.#.a: La titularidad de los derechos patrimoniales de esta obra pertenece a las instituciones editoras. Su uso se rige por una licencia Creative Commons BY-NC 4.0 Internacional, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode.es, para un uso diferente consultar al responsable jurídico del repositorio por medio del correo electrónico editora@atmosfera.unam.mx

884.#.#.k: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/52784

001.#.#.#: 022.oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/52784

041.#.7.h: eng

520.3.#.a: Mexico is vulnerable to extreme climatic events; however, their impact is not uniform in all the country. This study presents an analysis of extreme temperatures in 12 Mexican cities, modeled under the assumption of a non-stationary climate. Temporal trends were estimated from an available climatological base of maximum and minimum temperatures with the non-parametric tests of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope method, and a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was used to model both temperatures. A likelihood ratio test and Akaike and Bayesian information criteria were used to evaluate the optimal model choice with incorporation of a covariate. Using the best model, return levels and confidence intervals for future scenarios were estimated. A trend towards urban warming was detected from both the non-parametric tests and the GEV distribution, although with heterogeneous behavior. In the series of the maximum temperatures, half of the cities analyzed were non-stationary, and of those, the city of Guadalajara, located in the center-west of the country had a negative trend. The trend for minimum temperatures was more uniform, as 90% of the cities were non-stationary with a positive trend, and only 10%, in an urban area to the east of the metropolitan area of the Valley of Mexico (Milpa Alta) and a coastal city of the Gulf of Mexico (Veracruz), showed stationary series. It is therefore concluded that return periods of thermal extremes estimated in a changing climate temporarily showed a significant variation, so statistical modeling must consider this behavior due to its importance for risk assessments and adaptation purposes.

773.1.#.t: Atmósfera; Vol. 34 No. 3 (2021); 233-254

773.1.#.o: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/index

046.#.#.j: 2021-10-20 00:00:00.000000

022.#.#.a: ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236

310.#.#.a: Trimestral

300.#.#.a: Páginas: 233-254

264.#.1.b: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM

doi: https://doi.org/10.20937/ATM.52784

handle: 00e082d0d2a17a54

harvesting_date: 2023-06-20 16:00:00.0

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Artículo

Trends in temperature extremes in selected growing cities of Mexico under a non-stationary climate

García-cueto, O. Rafael; López-velázquez, J. Ernesto; Bojórquez-morales, Gonzalo; Santillán-soto, Néstor; Flores-jiménez, David Enrique

Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM, publicado en Atmósfera, y cosechado de Revistas UNAM

Licencia de uso

Procedencia del contenido

Entidad o dependencia
Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM
Revista
Repositorio
Contacto
Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

Cita

García-cueto, O. Rafael, et al. (2021). Trends in temperature extremes in selected growing cities of Mexico under a non-stationary climate. Atmósfera; Vol. 34 No. 3, 2021; 233-254. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/4120346

Descripción del recurso

Autor(es)
García-cueto, O. Rafael; López-velázquez, J. Ernesto; Bojórquez-morales, Gonzalo; Santillán-soto, Néstor; Flores-jiménez, David Enrique
Colaborador(es)
United Nations Development ProgramNational Institute of Ecology and Climate Change of Mexico
Tipo
Artículo de Investigación
Área del conocimiento
Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra
Título
Trends in temperature extremes in selected growing cities of Mexico under a non-stationary climate
Fecha
2021-06-30
Resumen
Mexico is vulnerable to extreme climatic events; however, their impact is not uniform in all the country. This study presents an analysis of extreme temperatures in 12 Mexican cities, modeled under the assumption of a non-stationary climate. Temporal trends were estimated from an available climatological base of maximum and minimum temperatures with the non-parametric tests of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope method, and a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was used to model both temperatures. A likelihood ratio test and Akaike and Bayesian information criteria were used to evaluate the optimal model choice with incorporation of a covariate. Using the best model, return levels and confidence intervals for future scenarios were estimated. A trend towards urban warming was detected from both the non-parametric tests and the GEV distribution, although with heterogeneous behavior. In the series of the maximum temperatures, half of the cities analyzed were non-stationary, and of those, the city of Guadalajara, located in the center-west of the country had a negative trend. The trend for minimum temperatures was more uniform, as 90% of the cities were non-stationary with a positive trend, and only 10%, in an urban area to the east of the metropolitan area of the Valley of Mexico (Milpa Alta) and a coastal city of the Gulf of Mexico (Veracruz), showed stationary series. It is therefore concluded that return periods of thermal extremes estimated in a changing climate temporarily showed a significant variation, so statistical modeling must consider this behavior due to its importance for risk assessments and adaptation purposes.
Tema
extreme temperatures; non-stationary climate; generalized extreme value distribution; return periods; cities of Mexico
Idioma
eng
ISSN
ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236

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