dor_id: 4119649
506.#.#.a: Público
590.#.#.d: Los artículos enviados a la revista "Contaduría y Administración", se juzgan por medio de un proceso de revisión por pares
510.0.#.a: Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT); Sistema Regional de Información en Línea para Revistas Científicas de América Latina, el Caribe, España y Portugal (Latindex); Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO); SCOPUS, SCImago Journal Rank (SJR)
561.#.#.u: https://www.fca.unam.mx/
650.#.4.x: Ciencias Sociales y Económicas
336.#.#.b: article
336.#.#.3: Artículo de Investigación
336.#.#.a: Artículo
351.#.#.6: http://www.cya.unam.mx/index.php/cya/index
351.#.#.b: Contaduría y Administración
351.#.#.a: Artículos
harvesting_group: RevistasUNAM
270.1.#.p: Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx
590.#.#.c: Open Journal Systems (OJS)
270.#.#.d: MX
270.1.#.d: México
590.#.#.b: Concentrador
883.#.#.u: https://revistas.unam.mx/catalogo/
883.#.#.a: Revistas UNAM
590.#.#.a: Coordinación de Difusión Cultural
883.#.#.1: https://www.publicaciones.unam.mx/
883.#.#.q: Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial
850.#.#.a: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
856.4.0.u: http://www.cya.unam.mx/index.php/cya/article/view/2623/1582
100.1.#.a: Medina Reyes, José Eduardo; Cruz Aké, Salvador; Cabrera Llanos, Agustín Ignacio
524.#.#.a: Medina Reyes, José Eduardo, et al. (2021). New hybrid fuzzy time series model: Forecasting the foreign exchange market. Contaduría y Administración; Vol. 66, Núm. 3. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/4119649
720.#.#.a: ConacytConacyt
245.1.0.a: New hybrid fuzzy time series model: Forecasting the foreign exchange market
502.#.#.c: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
561.1.#.a: Facultad de Contaduría y Administración, UNAM
264.#.0.c: 2021
264.#.1.c: 2020-10-21
653.#.#.a: Economía; finanzas; econometríafuzzy logic; fuzzy arima, fuzzy time series; fuzzy linear regression; economía; finanzas; econometríafuzzy logic; fuzzy arima, fuzzy time series; fuzzy linear regression
506.1.#.a: La titularidad de los derechos patrimoniales de esta obra pertenece a las instituciones editoras. Su uso se rige por una licencia Creative Commons BY 4.0 Internacional, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode.es, fecha de asignación de la licencia 2020-10-21, para un uso diferente consultar al responsable jurídico del repositorio por medio del correo electrónico revista_cya@fca.unam.mx
884.#.#.k: http://www.cya.unam.mx/index.php/cya/article/view/2623
001.#.#.#: oai:cya.www.revistas-conacyt.unam.mx:article/2623
041.#.7.h: eng
520.3.#.a: This work develops a comparison between the volatility prediction of traditional time series models (ARIMA, EGARCH and PARCH), against two new proposed models based on fuzzy theory (FTSFuzzy ARIMA Tseng’s and FTS-Fuzzy ARIMA Tanaka’s). To make this comparison, we estimatedthe Mexican peso - US dollar exchange rate yield from January 2008 to December 2017. Our main result is that the models based on fuzzy theory generate a better estimate of the volatility. The fuzzy models show a smaller least forecast error than the traditional time series in both; in and out of sample tests; for the volatility in the yield of the Mexican peso – US dollar exchange rate. Therefore, the fuzzymodels showed higher efficiency and better reflects the market information. This paper develops the comparison of the volatility prediction of the traditionalmodels (ARIMA, EGARCH, and PARCH), with respect to the Hybrid Fuzzy TimeSeries and Fuzzy ARIMA Model of Tseng’s and Tanaka’s methodology (FTS-FuzzyARIMA Tseng and FTS-Fuzzy ARIMA Tanaka). For this purpose, it applies to thetime series of the foreign exchange market to forecast the foreign currency exchange rate of Mexican Pesos against American Dollar, the growth rate of the time series data in a daily format from January 2008 to December 2017, to perform the sample test is used January 2018. The main result is that the models based on fuzzy theory generate a better estimate of the volatility of the foreign exchange rate. This work develops a comparison between the volatility prediction of traditional time series models (ARIMA, EGARCH and PARCH), against two new proposed models based on fuzzy theory (FTSFuzzy ARIMA Tseng’s and FTS-Fuzzy ARIMA Tanaka’s). To make this comparison, we estimatedthe Mexican peso - US dollar exchange rate yield from January 2008 to December 2017. Our main result is that the models based on fuzzy theory generate a better estimate of the volatility. The fuzzy models show a smaller least forecast error than the traditional time series in both; in and out of sample tests; for the volatility in the yield of the Mexican peso – US dollar exchange rate. Therefore, the fuzzymodels showed higher efficiency and better reflects the market information. This paper develops the comparison of the volatility prediction of the traditionalmodels (ARIMA, EGARCH, and PARCH), with respect to the Hybrid Fuzzy TimeSeries and Fuzzy ARIMA Model of Tseng’s and Tanaka’s methodology (FTS-FuzzyARIMA Tseng and FTS-Fuzzy ARIMA Tanaka). For this purpose, it applies to thetime series of the foreign exchange market to forecast the foreign currency exchange rate of Mexican Pesos against American Dollar, the growth rate of the time series data in a daily format from January 2008 to December 2017, to perform the sample test is used January 2018. The main result is that the models based on fuzzy theory generate a better estimate of the volatility of the foreign exchange rate.
773.1.#.t: Contaduría y Administración; Vol. 66, Núm. 3 (2021)
773.1.#.o: http://www.cya.unam.mx/index.php/cya/index
046.#.#.j: 2021-10-20 00:00:00.000000
022.#.#.a: ISSN electrónico: 2448-8410; ISSN impreso: 0186-1042
310.#.#.a: Trimestral
264.#.1.b: Facultad de Contaduría y Administración, UNAM
758.#.#.1: http://www.cya.unam.mx/index.php/cya/index
doi: https://doi.org/10.22201/fca.24488410e.2021.2623
handle: 6436cf7709b2ee91
harvesting_date: 2021-06-14 11:43:00.0
245.1.0.b: New hybrid fuzzy time series model: forecasting the foreign exchange market|new hybrid fuzzy time series model: forecasting the foreign exchange market|new hybrid fuzzy time series model: forecasting the foreign exchange market
last_modified: 2023-03-22 16:00:00
license_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode.es
license_type: by
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