dor_id: 10820

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510.0.#.a: Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT); Sistema Regional de Información en Línea para Revistas Científicas de América Latina, el Caribe, España y Portugal (Latindex); Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO); SCOPUS, Web Of Science (WoS); SCImago Journal Rank (SJR)

561.#.#.u: https://www.atmosfera.unam.mx/

650.#.4.x: Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra

336.#.#.b: article

336.#.#.3: Artículo de Investigación

336.#.#.a: Artículo

351.#.#.6: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/index

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351.#.#.a: Artículos

harvesting_group: RevistasUNAM

270.1.#.p: Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

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270.#.#.d: MX

270.1.#.d: México

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883.#.#.u: https://revistas.unam.mx/catalogo/

883.#.#.a: Revistas UNAM

590.#.#.a: Coordinación de Difusión Cultural

883.#.#.1: https://www.publicaciones.unam.mx/

883.#.#.q: Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial

850.#.#.a: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

856.4.0.u: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/8616/8086

100.1.#.a: Seager, R.; Ting, M.; Davis, M.; Cane, M.; Naik, N.; Nakamura, J.; Li, C.; Cook, E.; Stahle, D. W.

524.#.#.a: Seager, R., et al. (2009). Mexican drought: an observational modeling and tree ring study of variability and climate change. Atmósfera; Vol. 22 No. 1, 2009. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/10820

245.1.0.a: Mexican drought: an observational modeling and tree ring study of variability and climate change

502.#.#.c: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

561.1.#.a: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM

264.#.0.c: 2009

264.#.1.c: 2009-10-05

653.#.#.a: mexican drought; climate variability; el niño; hydroclimate change; MEXICAN DROUGHT; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; EL NIÑO; HYDROCLIMATE CHANGE

506.1.#.a: La titularidad de los derechos patrimoniales de esta obra pertenece a las instituciones editoras. Su uso se rige por una licencia Creative Commons BY-NC 4.0 Internacional, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode.es, para un uso diferente consultar al responsable jurídico del repositorio por medio del correo electrónico editora@atmosfera.unam.mx

884.#.#.k: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/8616

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041.#.7.h: eng

520.3.#.a: Variability of Mexican hydroclimate, with special attention to persistent drought, is examined using observations, model simulations forced by historical sea surface temperature (SST), tree ring reconstructions of past climate and model simulations and projections of naturally and anthropogenically forced climate change. During the winter half year, hydroclimate across México is influenced by the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean with the Atlantic playing little role. Mexican winters tend to be wetter during El Niño conditions. In the summer half year northern México is also wetter when El Niño conditions prevail, but southern México is drier. A warm tropical North Atlantic Ocean makes northern México dry and southern México wet. These relationships are reasonably well reproduced in ensembles of atmosphere model simulations forced by historical SST for the period from 1856 to 2002. Large ensembles of 100 day long integrations are used to examine the day to day evolution of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation in response to a sudden imposition of a El Niño SST anomaly in the summer half year. Kelvin waves propagate east and immediately cause increased column-integrated moisture divergence and reduced precipitation over the tropical Americas and Intra-America Seas. Within a few days a low level high pressure anomaly develops over the Gulf of México. A forced nonlinear model is used to demonstrate that this low is forced by the reduced atmospheric heating over the tropical Atlantic-Intra-America Seas area. Tree ring reconstructions that extend back before the period of instrumental precipitation data coverage are used to verify long model simulations forced by historical SST. The early to mid 1950s drought in northern México appears to have been the most severe since the mid nineteenth century and likely arose as a response to both a multiyear La Niña and a warm tropical North Atlantic. A drought in the 1890s was also severe and appears driven by a multiyear La Niña alone. The drought that began in the 1990s does not exceed these droughts in either duration or severity. Tree ring records extending back to the fourteenth century suggest that the late sixteenth century megadrought may have been the longest drought to have ever affected México. While the last decade or so in north and central México has been drier than preceding decades, the associated continental pattern of hydroclimate change does not fit that which models project to occur as a consequence of rising greenhouse gases and global warming. However, models robustly predict that México will dry as a consequence of global warming and that this drying should already be underway. At least for now, in nature, this is likely obscured by strong natural atmosphere-ocean variability.

773.1.#.t: Atmósfera; Vol. 22 No. 1 (2009)

773.1.#.o: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/index

046.#.#.j: 2021-10-20 00:00:00.000000

022.#.#.a: ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236

310.#.#.a: Trimestral

264.#.1.b: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM

handle: 00c73495d7482858

harvesting_date: 2023-06-20 16:00:00.0

856.#.0.q: application/pdf

245.1.0.b: Mexican drought: an observational modeling and tree ring study of variability and climate change

last_modified: 2023-06-20 16:00:00

license_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode.es

license_type: by-nc

_deleted_conflicts: 2-7cbca7d941c039f79ae3c41758572bd7

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Artículo

Mexican drought: an observational modeling and tree ring study of variability and climate change

Seager, R.; Ting, M.; Davis, M.; Cane, M.; Naik, N.; Nakamura, J.; Li, C.; Cook, E.; Stahle, D. W.

Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM, publicado en Atmósfera, y cosechado de Revistas UNAM

Licencia de uso

Procedencia del contenido

Entidad o dependencia
Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM
Revista
Atmósfera
Repositorio
Revistas UNAM
Contacto
Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

Cita

Seager, R., et al. (2009). Mexican drought: an observational modeling and tree ring study of variability and climate change. Atmósfera; Vol. 22 No. 1, 2009. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/10820

Descripción del recurso

Autor(es)
Seager, R.; Ting, M.; Davis, M.; Cane, M.; Naik, N.; Nakamura, J.; Li, C.; Cook, E.; Stahle, D. W.
Tipo
Artículo de Investigación
Área del conocimiento
Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra
Título
Mexican drought: an observational modeling and tree ring study of variability and climate change
Fecha
2009-10-05
Resumen
Variability of Mexican hydroclimate, with special attention to persistent drought, is examined using observations, model simulations forced by historical sea surface temperature (SST), tree ring reconstructions of past climate and model simulations and projections of naturally and anthropogenically forced climate change. During the winter half year, hydroclimate across México is influenced by the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean with the Atlantic playing little role. Mexican winters tend to be wetter during El Niño conditions. In the summer half year northern México is also wetter when El Niño conditions prevail, but southern México is drier. A warm tropical North Atlantic Ocean makes northern México dry and southern México wet. These relationships are reasonably well reproduced in ensembles of atmosphere model simulations forced by historical SST for the period from 1856 to 2002. Large ensembles of 100 day long integrations are used to examine the day to day evolution of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation in response to a sudden imposition of a El Niño SST anomaly in the summer half year. Kelvin waves propagate east and immediately cause increased column-integrated moisture divergence and reduced precipitation over the tropical Americas and Intra-America Seas. Within a few days a low level high pressure anomaly develops over the Gulf of México. A forced nonlinear model is used to demonstrate that this low is forced by the reduced atmospheric heating over the tropical Atlantic-Intra-America Seas area. Tree ring reconstructions that extend back before the period of instrumental precipitation data coverage are used to verify long model simulations forced by historical SST. The early to mid 1950s drought in northern México appears to have been the most severe since the mid nineteenth century and likely arose as a response to both a multiyear La Niña and a warm tropical North Atlantic. A drought in the 1890s was also severe and appears driven by a multiyear La Niña alone. The drought that began in the 1990s does not exceed these droughts in either duration or severity. Tree ring records extending back to the fourteenth century suggest that the late sixteenth century megadrought may have been the longest drought to have ever affected México. While the last decade or so in north and central México has been drier than preceding decades, the associated continental pattern of hydroclimate change does not fit that which models project to occur as a consequence of rising greenhouse gases and global warming. However, models robustly predict that México will dry as a consequence of global warming and that this drying should already be underway. At least for now, in nature, this is likely obscured by strong natural atmosphere-ocean variability.
Tema
mexican drought; climate variability; el niño; hydroclimate change; MEXICAN DROUGHT; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; EL NIÑO; HYDROCLIMATE CHANGE
Idioma
eng
ISSN
ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236

Enlaces