dor_id: 4102202

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590.#.#.d: Cada artículo es evaluado mediante una revisión ciega única. Los revisores son externos nacionales e internacionales.

510.0.#.a: Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT), Sistema Regional de Información en Línea para Revistas Científicas de América Latina, el Caribe, España y Portugal (Latindex), Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO), SCOPUS, Web Of Science (WoS)

561.#.#.u: http://www.geofisica.unam.mx/

650.#.4.x: Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra

336.#.#.b: info:eu-repo/semantics/article

336.#.#.3: Artículo de Investigación

336.#.#.a: Artículo

351.#.#.6: http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI

351.#.#.b: Geofísica Internacional

351.#.#.a: Artículos

harvesting_group: RevistasUNAM

270.1.#.p: Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

590.#.#.c: Open Journal Systems (OJS)

270.#.#.d: MX

270.1.#.d: México

590.#.#.b: Concentrador

883.#.#.u: http://www.revistas.unam.mx/front/

883.#.#.a: Revistas UNAM

590.#.#.a: Coordinación de Difusión Cultural

883.#.#.1: https://www.publicaciones.unam.mx/

883.#.#.q: Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM

850.#.#.a: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

856.4.0.u: http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI/article/view/2065/1682

100.1.#.a: Mendoza Rosas, Ana Teresa; De La Cruz Reyna, Servando

524.#.#.a: Mendoza Rosas, Ana Teresa, et al. (2019). Hazard assessment of the ongoing lava dome eruption at Popocatépetl volcano from the statistical analysis of significant explosive events in the period of 1997 to 2016. Geofísica Internacional; Vol. 58 No. 1, 2019; 33-48. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/4102202

245.1.0.a: Hazard assessment of the ongoing lava dome eruption at Popocatépetl volcano from the statistical analysis of significant explosive events in the period of 1997 to 2016.

502.#.#.c: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

561.1.#.a: Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM

264.#.0.c: 2019

264.#.1.c: 2019-01-18

653.#.#.a: Popocatépetl volcano; lava dome eruption; vulcanian explosions; eruptive columns; ash emission; exhalations; statistical analysis; volcán Popocatépetl; erupción de domos de lava; explosiones vulcanianas; columnas eruptivas; emisión de cenizas; exhalaciones; análisis estadístico

506.1.#.a: La titularidad de los derechos patrimoniales de esta obra pertenece a las instituciones editoras. Su uso se rige por una licencia Creative Commons BY-NC-ND 4.0 Internacional, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode.es, fecha de asignación de la licencia 2019-01-18, para un uso diferente consultar al responsable jurídico del repositorio por medio de revistagi@igeofisica.unam.mx

884.#.#.k: http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI/article/view/2065

001.#.#.#: oai:ojs.ojs.geofisica.unam.mx:article/2065

041.#.7.h: eng

520.3.#.a: After 70 years of quiescence Popocatépetl volcano began a new episode of activity in 1994, which is still ongoing. The predominant activity has been a succession of dome emplacements followed by sequences of dome-destruction explosions producing prominent volcanic ash columns. Moreover, relatively large eruptive columns have also been produced during the dome growth stages. To assess the hazard of this activity we use the height of the columns as an indicator of the rate of energy release of the events and of their dispersive power and destructive potential. We hence built a database of the events producing columns exceeding heights of 4 km above the volcano summit for the period 1997 to 2016. Considering the occurrences of such columns as a random variable representing the hazard of such explosive activity, we studied the statistical features of the database, and found that the occurrence rate of significant explosions is a point process developing in at least two stages, with the significant changepoint in 2003. The first stage from 1997 to 2003 is non stationary, while the second one, from 2003 to 2016, shows a stationary behavior. While the former is well described by a Mixture of Exponentials distribution (MOED), the latter fits well an Exponential distribution. The probabilities of significant eruptive columns occurring in given time intervals result to be strongly dependent on the stationarity of the process. The assessment of hazard thus requires a continuous testing of the time dependence of the ongoing process, since there is no clear physical evidence of the factors controlling this behavior.

773.1.#.t: Geofísica Internacional; Vol. 58 No. 1 (2019); 33-48

773.1.#.o: http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI

046.#.#.j: 2020-10-20 00:00:00.000000

022.#.#.a: 0016-7169

310.#.#.a: Trimestral

264.#.1.b: Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM

758.#.#.1: http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI

handle: 65199899e2533136

harvesting_date: 2020-09-23 00:00:00.0

856.#.0.q: application/pdf; text/xml

file_modification_date: 2020-08-13 16:20:22.0

last_modified: 2020-10-21 00:00:00

license_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode.es

license_type: by-nc-nd

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Artículo

Hazard assessment of the ongoing lava dome eruption at Popocatépetl volcano from the statistical analysis of significant explosive events in the period of 1997 to 2016.

Mendoza Rosas, Ana Teresa; De La Cruz Reyna, Servando

Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM, publicado en Geofísica Internacional, y cosechado de Revistas UNAM

Licencia de uso

Procedencia del contenido

Entidad o dependencia
Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM
Revista
Repositorio
Contacto
Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

Cita

Mendoza Rosas, Ana Teresa, et al. (2019). Hazard assessment of the ongoing lava dome eruption at Popocatépetl volcano from the statistical analysis of significant explosive events in the period of 1997 to 2016. Geofísica Internacional; Vol. 58 No. 1, 2019; 33-48. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/4102202

Descripción del recurso

Autor(es)
Mendoza Rosas, Ana Teresa; De La Cruz Reyna, Servando
Tipo
Artículo de Investigación
Área del conocimiento
Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra
Título
Hazard assessment of the ongoing lava dome eruption at Popocatépetl volcano from the statistical analysis of significant explosive events in the period of 1997 to 2016.
Fecha
2019-01-18
Resumen
After 70 years of quiescence Popocatépetl volcano began a new episode of activity in 1994, which is still ongoing. The predominant activity has been a succession of dome emplacements followed by sequences of dome-destruction explosions producing prominent volcanic ash columns. Moreover, relatively large eruptive columns have also been produced during the dome growth stages. To assess the hazard of this activity we use the height of the columns as an indicator of the rate of energy release of the events and of their dispersive power and destructive potential. We hence built a database of the events producing columns exceeding heights of 4 km above the volcano summit for the period 1997 to 2016. Considering the occurrences of such columns as a random variable representing the hazard of such explosive activity, we studied the statistical features of the database, and found that the occurrence rate of significant explosions is a point process developing in at least two stages, with the significant changepoint in 2003. The first stage from 1997 to 2003 is non stationary, while the second one, from 2003 to 2016, shows a stationary behavior. While the former is well described by a Mixture of Exponentials distribution (MOED), the latter fits well an Exponential distribution. The probabilities of significant eruptive columns occurring in given time intervals result to be strongly dependent on the stationarity of the process. The assessment of hazard thus requires a continuous testing of the time dependence of the ongoing process, since there is no clear physical evidence of the factors controlling this behavior.
Tema
Popocatépetl volcano; lava dome eruption; vulcanian explosions; eruptive columns; ash emission; exhalations; statistical analysis; volcán Popocatépetl; erupción de domos de lava; explosiones vulcanianas; columnas eruptivas; emisión de cenizas; exhalaciones; análisis estadístico
Idioma
eng
ISSN
0016-7169

Enlaces