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336.#.#.3: Artículo de Investigación

336.#.#.a: Artículo

351.#.#.6: http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI

351.#.#.b: Geofísica Internacional

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856.4.0.u: http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI/article/view/78/78

100.1.#.a: Vega-jorquera, Pedro; Lazzús, Juan A.; Rojas, Pedro

524.#.#.a: Vega-jorquera, Pedro, et al. (2018). GA-optimized neural network for forecasting the geomagnetic storm index. Geofísica Internacional; Vol. 57 Núm. 4: Octubre 1, 2018; 239-251. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/4132407

245.1.0.a: GA-optimized neural network for forecasting the geomagnetic storm index

502.#.#.c: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

561.1.#.a: Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM

264.#.0.c: 2018

264.#.1.c: 2018-10-01

653.#.#.a: Índice Dst, Pronóstico; Tormenta geomagnética; Serie temporal; Red neuronal artificial; Algoritmo genético; Dst index, Forecast; Geomagnetic storm; Time series; Artificial neural network; Genetic algorithm

506.1.#.a: La titularidad de los derechos patrimoniales de esta obra pertenece a las instituciones editoras. Su uso se rige por una licencia Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 4.0 Internacional, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/legalcode.es, para un uso diferente consultar al responsable jurídico del repositorio por medio del correo electrónico revistagi@igeofisica.unam.mx

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520.3.#.a: A method that combines an artificial neural network and a genetic algorithm (ANN+GA) was developed in order to forecast the disturbance storm time (Dst) index. This technique involves optimizing the ANN by GA to update the ANN weights and to forecast the short-term Dst index from 1 to 6 hours in advance by using the time series values of the Dst and auroral electrojet (AE) indices. The database used contains 233,760 hourly geomagnetic indices data from 00 UT on 01 January 1990 to 23 UT on 31 August 2016. Different topologies of ANN were analyzed and the optimum architecture was selected. It emerged that the proposed ANN+GA method can be properly trained for forecasting Dst (t+1 to t+6) with good accuracy (with root mean square errors RMSE ≤ 10nT and correlation coefficients R ≥ 0.9), and that the utilized geomagnetic indices significantly affect the good training and predicting capabilities of the chosen network. The results show a good agreement between the measured and modeled Dst variations in both the main and recovery phases of a geomagnetic storm.doi: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2018.57.4.2104          

773.1.#.t: Geofísica Internacional; Vol. 57 Núm. 4: Octubre 1, 2018; 239-251

773.1.#.o: http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI

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264.#.1.b: Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM

doi: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2018.57.4.2104

handle: 28c811c19ac0fc93

harvesting_date: 2023-06-20 16:00:00.0

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file_creator: Vega-Jorquera P.

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245.1.0.b: GA-optimized neural network for forecasting the geomagnetic storm index

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license_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/legalcode.es

license_type: by-nc-sa

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Artículo

GA-optimized neural network for forecasting the geomagnetic storm index

Vega-jorquera, Pedro; Lazzús, Juan A.; Rojas, Pedro

Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM, publicado en Geofísica Internacional, y cosechado de Revistas UNAM

Licencia de uso

Procedencia del contenido

Entidad o dependencia
Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM
Revista
Repositorio
Contacto
Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

Cita

Vega-jorquera, Pedro, et al. (2018). GA-optimized neural network for forecasting the geomagnetic storm index. Geofísica Internacional; Vol. 57 Núm. 4: Octubre 1, 2018; 239-251. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/4132407

Descripción del recurso

Autor(es)
Vega-jorquera, Pedro; Lazzús, Juan A.; Rojas, Pedro
Tipo
Artículo de Investigación
Área del conocimiento
Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra
Título
GA-optimized neural network for forecasting the geomagnetic storm index
Fecha
2018-10-01
Resumen
A method that combines an artificial neural network and a genetic algorithm (ANN+GA) was developed in order to forecast the disturbance storm time (Dst) index. This technique involves optimizing the ANN by GA to update the ANN weights and to forecast the short-term Dst index from 1 to 6 hours in advance by using the time series values of the Dst and auroral electrojet (AE) indices. The database used contains 233,760 hourly geomagnetic indices data from 00 UT on 01 January 1990 to 23 UT on 31 August 2016. Different topologies of ANN were analyzed and the optimum architecture was selected. It emerged that the proposed ANN+GA method can be properly trained for forecasting Dst (t+1 to t+6) with good accuracy (with root mean square errors RMSE ≤ 10nT and correlation coefficients R ≥ 0.9), and that the utilized geomagnetic indices significantly affect the good training and predicting capabilities of the chosen network. The results show a good agreement between the measured and modeled Dst variations in both the main and recovery phases of a geomagnetic storm.doi: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2018.57.4.2104          
Tema
Índice Dst, Pronóstico; Tormenta geomagnética; Serie temporal; Red neuronal artificial; Algoritmo genético; Dst index, Forecast; Geomagnetic storm; Time series; Artificial neural network; Genetic algorithm
Idioma
spa
ISSN
ISSN-L: 2954-436X; ISSN impreso: 0016-7169

Enlaces