dor_id: 10989

506.#.#.a: Público

590.#.#.d: Los artículos enviados a la revista "Atmósfera", se juzgan por medio de un proceso de revisión por pares

510.0.#.a: Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT); Sistema Regional de Información en Línea para Revistas Científicas de América Latina, el Caribe, España y Portugal (Latindex); Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO); SCOPUS, Web Of Science (WoS); SCImago Journal Rank (SJR)

561.#.#.u: https://www.atmosfera.unam.mx/

650.#.4.x: Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra

336.#.#.b: article

336.#.#.3: Artículo de Investigación

336.#.#.a: Artículo

351.#.#.6: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/index

351.#.#.b: Atmósfera

351.#.#.a: Artículos

harvesting_group: RevistasUNAM

270.1.#.p: Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

590.#.#.c: Open Journal Systems (OJS)

270.#.#.d: MX

270.1.#.d: México

590.#.#.b: Concentrador

883.#.#.u: https://revistas.unam.mx/catalogo/

883.#.#.a: Revistas UNAM

590.#.#.a: Coordinación de Difusión Cultural

883.#.#.1: https://www.publicaciones.unam.mx/

883.#.#.q: Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial

850.#.#.a: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

856.4.0.u: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/ATM.2017.30.02.03/46588

100.1.#.a: Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; Zavala-hidalgo, Jorge; Cusell, Carline; Ward, Philip J.

524.#.#.a: Haer, Toon, et al. (2017). Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico. Atmósfera; Vol. 30 No. 2, 2017; 101-120. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/10989

245.1.0.a: Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico

502.#.#.c: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

561.1.#.a: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM

264.#.0.c: 2017

264.#.1.c: 2017-03-31

653.#.#.a: Climate change adaptation; cost-benefit analysis; flood risk; natural hazards; risk and uncertainty

506.1.#.a: La titularidad de los derechos patrimoniales de esta obra pertenece a las instituciones editoras. Su uso se rige por una licencia Creative Commons BY-NC 4.0 Internacional, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode.es, para un uso diferente consultar al responsable jurídico del repositorio por medio del correo electrónico editora@atmosfera.unam.mx

884.#.#.k: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/ATM.2017.30.02.03

001.#.#.#: 022.oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/52388

041.#.7.h: eng

520.3.#.a: Economic losses as a result of natural hazards have been rising over the past few decades due to socio-economic development and perhaps climate change. This upwards trend is projected to continue, highlighting the need for adequate adaptation strategies. This raises the question of how to determine which adaptation strategies are preferred to cope with uncertain climate change impacts. This study shows how a multi-disciplinary cascade of hazard modelling, risk modelling, and a cost-benefit analysis can be applied to provide a first indicator of economically efficient adaptation strategies. We apply this approach to an analysis of flood risk and the desirability of flood protection in the state of Tabasco in Mexico, which faces severe flooding on an almost yearly basis. The results show that expected annual damage caused by coastal flooding is expected to increase from 0.53 billion USD today up to 4.12 billion USD in 2080 due to socio-economic development and climate change. For river floods, expected annual damages are estimated to increase from 1.79 billion USD up to 10.6 billion USD in 2080 if no adaptation measures are taken. Based on the estimated risk and cost-benefit analysis of installing flood protection infrastructure, we determined the economically optimal protection standards for both river and coastal floods as at least 100 years, if we take into account climate change. Our main conclusions are robust to key uncertainties about climate change impacts on flood risks, indirect damage caused by floods, the width of the protected floodplains, and the adopted social discount rate. We discuss how our multi-disciplinary approach can assist policy-makers in decisions about flood risk management, and how future research can extend our method to more refined local analyses which are needed to guide local adaptation planning.

773.1.#.t: Atmósfera; Vol. 30 No. 2 (2017); 101-120

773.1.#.o: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/index

046.#.#.j: 2021-10-20 00:00:00.000000

022.#.#.a: ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236

310.#.#.a: Trimestral

300.#.#.a: Páginas: 101-120

264.#.1.b: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM

doi: https://doi.org/10.20937/ATM.2017.30.02.03

handle: 00ebbea858eac143

harvesting_date: 2023-06-20 16:00:00.0

856.#.0.q: application/pdf

last_modified: 2023-06-20 16:00:00

license_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode.es

license_type: by-nc

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Artículo

Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico

Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; Zavala-hidalgo, Jorge; Cusell, Carline; Ward, Philip J.

Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM, publicado en Atmósfera, y cosechado de Revistas UNAM

Licencia de uso

Procedencia del contenido

Entidad o dependencia
Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM
Revista
Repositorio
Contacto
Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

Cita

Haer, Toon, et al. (2017). Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico. Atmósfera; Vol. 30 No. 2, 2017; 101-120. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/10989

Descripción del recurso

Autor(es)
Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; Zavala-hidalgo, Jorge; Cusell, Carline; Ward, Philip J.
Tipo
Artículo de Investigación
Área del conocimiento
Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra
Título
Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico
Fecha
2017-03-31
Resumen
Economic losses as a result of natural hazards have been rising over the past few decades due to socio-economic development and perhaps climate change. This upwards trend is projected to continue, highlighting the need for adequate adaptation strategies. This raises the question of how to determine which adaptation strategies are preferred to cope with uncertain climate change impacts. This study shows how a multi-disciplinary cascade of hazard modelling, risk modelling, and a cost-benefit analysis can be applied to provide a first indicator of economically efficient adaptation strategies. We apply this approach to an analysis of flood risk and the desirability of flood protection in the state of Tabasco in Mexico, which faces severe flooding on an almost yearly basis. The results show that expected annual damage caused by coastal flooding is expected to increase from 0.53 billion USD today up to 4.12 billion USD in 2080 due to socio-economic development and climate change. For river floods, expected annual damages are estimated to increase from 1.79 billion USD up to 10.6 billion USD in 2080 if no adaptation measures are taken. Based on the estimated risk and cost-benefit analysis of installing flood protection infrastructure, we determined the economically optimal protection standards for both river and coastal floods as at least 100 years, if we take into account climate change. Our main conclusions are robust to key uncertainties about climate change impacts on flood risks, indirect damage caused by floods, the width of the protected floodplains, and the adopted social discount rate. We discuss how our multi-disciplinary approach can assist policy-makers in decisions about flood risk management, and how future research can extend our method to more refined local analyses which are needed to guide local adaptation planning.
Tema
Climate change adaptation; cost-benefit analysis; flood risk; natural hazards; risk and uncertainty
Idioma
eng
ISSN
ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236

Enlaces