Artículo

Diffusion processes in multilayer transportation networks: the flight of the Coronavirus

Yamamoto Elizalde, A. Y.; Hernández Lemus, E.; de Anda Jáuregui.

Facultad de Ciencias, UNAM, publicado en Revista Mexicana de Física, y cosechado de Revistas UNAM

Licencia de uso

Procedencia del contenido

Entidad o dependencia
Facultad de Ciencias, UNAM
Revista
Repositorio
Contacto
Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

Cita

Yamamoto Elizalde, A. Y., et al. (2020). Diffusion processes in multilayer transportation networks: the flight of the Coronavirus. Revista Mexicana de Física; Vol 66, No 4 Jul-Aug: 516-524. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/4107188

Descripción del recurso

Autor(es)
Yamamoto Elizalde, A. Y.; Hernández Lemus, E.; de Anda Jáuregui.
Adscripción del autor
NA
Tipo
Artículo de Investigación
Área del conocimiento
Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra
Título
Diffusion processes in multilayer transportation networks: the flight of the Coronavirus
Fecha
2020-07-01
Resumen
At the end of December of 2019, a new type of coronavirus, now called COVID-19 started spreading in Wuhan, China and later throughout the world. Due to the global emergency state the World Health Organization declared and the need to know more about the danger Mexico is in, we worked on analyzing the risk of the COVID-19 importation to Mexico through the Air Transportation Network with a multilayer network approach. Based on the data obtained from the public data bases of OpenFlights, we created a multiplex network in which nodes represented airports, flights represented links, and airlines represented layers. We then simulated the propagation of the coronavirus using an unbiased random walk model with probability p=1 of infection once the random walker steps in a certain airport. We found the COVID-19 spread behavior the first month is anomalous (subdiffusion) and later behaves as a normal diffusion. We also found the risk of importing the virus to Mexico increases linearly over time and after approximately one year, there is almost a 90% probability of being infected. However, it is important to mention this high risk is due to contagions by people from other countries (not China) which have already confirmed cases of coronavirus. We concluded the risk of importing the COVID-19 to Mexico is almost ineludible over time unless effective medical interventions are imposed.
Tema
COVID19; random walks; multiplex networks; multilayer networks; air transportation network
Idioma
eng
ISSN
2683-2224 (digital); 0035-001X (impresa)

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