dor_id: 4119228

506.#.#.a: Público

590.#.#.d: Los artículos enviados a la revista "Atmósfera", se juzgan por medio de un proceso de revisión por pares

510.0.#.a: Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT); Sistema Regional de Información en Línea para Revistas Científicas de América Latina, el Caribe, España y Portugal (Latindex); Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO); SCOPUS, Web Of Science (WoS); SCImago Journal Rank (SJR)

561.#.#.u: https://www.atmosfera.unam.mx/

650.#.4.x: Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra

336.#.#.b: article

336.#.#.3: Artículo de Investigación

336.#.#.a: Artículo

351.#.#.6: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/index

351.#.#.b: Atmósfera

351.#.#.a: Artículos

harvesting_group: RevistasUNAM

270.1.#.p: Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

590.#.#.c: Open Journal Systems (OJS)

270.#.#.d: MX

270.1.#.d: México

590.#.#.b: Concentrador

883.#.#.u: https://revistas.unam.mx/catalogo/

883.#.#.a: Revistas UNAM

590.#.#.a: Coordinación de Difusión Cultural

883.#.#.1: https://www.publicaciones.unam.mx/

883.#.#.q: Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial

850.#.#.a: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

856.4.0.u: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/ATM.52430/46720

100.1.#.a: Arce Romero, Antonio; Monterroso Rivas, Alejandro Ismael; Gómez Díaz, Jesús David; Palacios Mendoza, Miguel Ángel; Navarro Salas, Elda Nohemí; López Blanco, Jorge; Conde Álvarez, Ana Cecilia

524.#.#.a: Arce Romero, Antonio, et al. (2020). Crop yield simulations in Mexican agriculture for climate change adaptation. Atmósfera; Vol. 33 No. 3, 2020; 215-231. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/4119228

245.1.0.a: Crop yield simulations in Mexican agriculture for climate change adaptation

502.#.#.c: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

561.1.#.a: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM

264.#.0.c: 2020

264.#.1.c: 2020-06-30

653.#.#.a: food security; maize; beans; wheat; soybeans; sorghum; barley; potatoes; AquaCrop

506.1.#.a: La titularidad de los derechos patrimoniales de esta obra pertenece a las instituciones editoras. Su uso se rige por una licencia Creative Commons BY-NC 4.0 Internacional, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode.es, para un uso diferente consultar al responsable jurídico del repositorio por medio del correo electrónico editora@atmosfera.unam.mx

884.#.#.k: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/ATM.52430

001.#.#.#: 022.oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/52430

041.#.7.h: eng

520.3.#.a: Climate change is considered a serious threat to food security worldwide. In this study, yields of maize, beans, wheat, soybean, sorghum, barley and potato were modeled with 28 future climate change scenarios. Our results reduce the information gap that is frequently reported for Mexico and will contribute to better knowledge on spatial impact of climate change. We applied FAO AquaCrop model for 22 case studies located in 14 states of Mexico. Climate change scenarios were: CNRM, GFDL, HADGEM, MPI and Ensemble REA, with two radiative forcing concentrations (4.5 and 8.5 W m–2) and three time horizons (2015-2039, 2045-2069, and 2075-2099). The results show decreases in yields of most of the case studies as a consequence of a decrease in the amount and distribution of precipitation. Maize yield in warm dry climates could decrease up to 84% in the most severe scenarios. Beans could decrease from 10 to 40% in the north of the country, while in the northwest a 15% decrease in wheat yield is predicted. Soybeans could benefit, with increases from 15 to 40%. Sorghum and potatoes are expected to decrease for all the case studies, while barley would have increases and decreases. The results suggest differentiated impacts according to crops and regions studied. We concluded that agriculture requires better focused strategies and policies (attention on crop and spatial distribution).

773.1.#.t: Atmósfera; Vol. 33 No. 3 (2020); 215-231

773.1.#.o: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/index

046.#.#.j: 2021-10-20 00:00:00.000000

022.#.#.a: ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236

310.#.#.a: Trimestral

300.#.#.a: Páginas: 215-231

264.#.1.b: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM

doi: https://doi.org/10.20937/ATM.52430

handle: 00b915e04823b426

harvesting_date: 2023-06-20 16:00:00.0

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file_creation_date: 2020-06-30 22:07:59.0

file_modification_date: 2020-06-30 22:08:03.0

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last_modified: 2023-06-20 16:00:00

license_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode.es

license_type: by-nc

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Artículo

Crop yield simulations in Mexican agriculture for climate change adaptation

Arce Romero, Antonio; Monterroso Rivas, Alejandro Ismael; Gómez Díaz, Jesús David; Palacios Mendoza, Miguel Ángel; Navarro Salas, Elda Nohemí; López Blanco, Jorge; Conde Álvarez, Ana Cecilia

Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM, publicado en Atmósfera, y cosechado de Revistas UNAM

Licencia de uso

Procedencia del contenido

Entidad o dependencia
Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM
Revista
Repositorio
Contacto
Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

Cita

Arce Romero, Antonio, et al. (2020). Crop yield simulations in Mexican agriculture for climate change adaptation. Atmósfera; Vol. 33 No. 3, 2020; 215-231. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/4119228

Descripción del recurso

Autor(es)
Arce Romero, Antonio; Monterroso Rivas, Alejandro Ismael; Gómez Díaz, Jesús David; Palacios Mendoza, Miguel Ángel; Navarro Salas, Elda Nohemí; López Blanco, Jorge; Conde Álvarez, Ana Cecilia
Tipo
Artículo de Investigación
Área del conocimiento
Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra
Título
Crop yield simulations in Mexican agriculture for climate change adaptation
Fecha
2020-06-30
Resumen
Climate change is considered a serious threat to food security worldwide. In this study, yields of maize, beans, wheat, soybean, sorghum, barley and potato were modeled with 28 future climate change scenarios. Our results reduce the information gap that is frequently reported for Mexico and will contribute to better knowledge on spatial impact of climate change. We applied FAO AquaCrop model for 22 case studies located in 14 states of Mexico. Climate change scenarios were: CNRM, GFDL, HADGEM, MPI and Ensemble REA, with two radiative forcing concentrations (4.5 and 8.5 W m–2) and three time horizons (2015-2039, 2045-2069, and 2075-2099). The results show decreases in yields of most of the case studies as a consequence of a decrease in the amount and distribution of precipitation. Maize yield in warm dry climates could decrease up to 84% in the most severe scenarios. Beans could decrease from 10 to 40% in the north of the country, while in the northwest a 15% decrease in wheat yield is predicted. Soybeans could benefit, with increases from 15 to 40%. Sorghum and potatoes are expected to decrease for all the case studies, while barley would have increases and decreases. The results suggest differentiated impacts according to crops and regions studied. We concluded that agriculture requires better focused strategies and policies (attention on crop and spatial distribution).
Tema
food security; maize; beans; wheat; soybeans; sorghum; barley; potatoes; AquaCrop
Idioma
eng
ISSN
ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236

Enlaces