dor_id: 11340

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510.0.#.a: Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT); Sistema Regional de Información en Línea para Revistas Científicas de América Latina, el Caribe, España y Portugal (Latindex); Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO); SCOPUS, Web Of Science (WoS); SCImago Journal Rank (SJR)

561.#.#.u: https://www.atmosfera.unam.mx/

650.#.4.x: Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra

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336.#.#.a: Artículo

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270.1.#.p: Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

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856.4.0.u: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/ATM.2017.30.02.06/46591

100.1.#.a: Estrada, Francisco; Martins, Luis Felipe; Perron, Pierre

524.#.#.a: Estrada, Francisco, et al. (2017). Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures. Atmósfera; Vol. 30 No. 2, 2017; 163-187. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/11340

245.1.0.a: Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures

502.#.#.c: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

561.1.#.a: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM

264.#.0.c: 2017

264.#.1.c: 2017-03-31

653.#.#.a: Climate change; warming hiatus; structural break; co-trending; principal component analysis

506.1.#.a: La titularidad de los derechos patrimoniales de esta obra pertenece a las instituciones editoras. Su uso se rige por una licencia Creative Commons BY-NC 4.0 Internacional, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode.es, para un uso diferente consultar al responsable jurídico del repositorio por medio del correo electrónico editora@atmosfera.unam.mx

884.#.#.k: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/ATM.2017.30.02.06

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041.#.7.h: eng

520.3.#.a: Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemispheric temperature series suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded differently to the changes in the radiative forcing. Using recent econometric techniques, we can reconcile such differences and show that all sea and land temperatures share similar time series properties and a common underlying warming trend having a dominant anthropogenic origin. We also investigate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) and show that the differences in warming between hemispheres are in part driven by anthropogenic forcing but that most of the observed rapid changes is likely due to natural variability. The attribution of changes in ITA is relevant since increases in the temperature contrast between hemispheres could potentially produce a shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and alter rainfall patterns. The existence of a current slowdown in the warming and its causes are also investigated. The results suggest that the slowdown is a common feature in global and hemispheric sea and land temperatures that can, at least partly, be attributed to changes in anthropogenic forcing.

773.1.#.t: Atmósfera; Vol. 30 No. 2 (2017); 163-187

773.1.#.o: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/index

046.#.#.j: 2021-10-20 00:00:00.000000

022.#.#.a: ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236

310.#.#.a: Trimestral

300.#.#.a: Páginas: 163-187

264.#.1.b: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM

doi: https://doi.org/10.20937/ATM.2017.30.02.06

handle: 00ba69740c6db419

harvesting_date: 2023-06-20 16:00:00.0

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last_modified: 2023-06-20 16:00:00

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Artículo

Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures

Estrada, Francisco; Martins, Luis Felipe; Perron, Pierre

Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM, publicado en Atmósfera, y cosechado de Revistas UNAM

Licencia de uso

Procedencia del contenido

Entidad o dependencia
Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM
Revista
Repositorio
Contacto
Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx

Cita

Estrada, Francisco, et al. (2017). Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures. Atmósfera; Vol. 30 No. 2, 2017; 163-187. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/11340

Descripción del recurso

Autor(es)
Estrada, Francisco; Martins, Luis Felipe; Perron, Pierre
Tipo
Artículo de Investigación
Área del conocimiento
Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra
Título
Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures
Fecha
2017-03-31
Resumen
Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemispheric temperature series suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded differently to the changes in the radiative forcing. Using recent econometric techniques, we can reconcile such differences and show that all sea and land temperatures share similar time series properties and a common underlying warming trend having a dominant anthropogenic origin. We also investigate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) and show that the differences in warming between hemispheres are in part driven by anthropogenic forcing but that most of the observed rapid changes is likely due to natural variability. The attribution of changes in ITA is relevant since increases in the temperature contrast between hemispheres could potentially produce a shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and alter rainfall patterns. The existence of a current slowdown in the warming and its causes are also investigated. The results suggest that the slowdown is a common feature in global and hemispheric sea and land temperatures that can, at least partly, be attributed to changes in anthropogenic forcing.
Tema
Climate change; warming hiatus; structural break; co-trending; principal component analysis
Idioma
eng
ISSN
ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236

Enlaces