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Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM
Revista
Repositorio
Contacto
Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx
Autor(es)
Rodríguez, Sara; Huerta, Gabriel; Reyes, Hortensia
Tipo
Artículo de Investigación
Área del conocimiento
Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra
Título
A study of trends for Mexico City ozone extremes: 2001-2014
Fecha
2021-07-02
Resumen
We analyze trends of high values of tropospheric ozone over Mexico City based on data corresponding to the years 2001-2014. The data consists of monthly maxima ozone concentrations based on 29 monitoring stations. Due to the large presence of missing data, we consider the monthly maxima based on five well identified geographical zones. We assess time trends based on a statistical model that assumes that these observations follow an extreme value distribution, where the location parameter changes in time accordingly to a regression model. In addition, we use Bayesian methods to estimate simultaneously a zonal and an overall time-trend parameter along with the shape and scale parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. We compare our results to a model that is based on a normal distribution. Our analyses show some evidence of decaying ozone levels for the monthly maxima during the period of study.
Tema
Trend analysis; GEV distribution; Mexico City ozone levels; Bayesian methods.
Idioma
eng
ISSN
ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236
