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Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM
Revista
Repositorio
Contacto
Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx
Autor(es)
Sakalis, Vasileios D.
Tipo
Artículo de Investigación
Área del conocimiento
Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra
Título
Trend analysis and forecast of annual precipitation and temperature series in the Eastern Mediterranean region
Fecha
2024-02-15
Resumen
The present study aims to examine the current trend of annual precipitation and temperature series referred to the Eastern Mediterranean basin on a national basis, including the annual variability of sea surface temperature anomalies and the connection effect with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Mediterranean Oscillation indices (NAOI and MOI, respectively). The period under consideration is mainly the last 32 years, from 1990 to 2021. Additionally, the prediction of monthly and yearly temperature and precipitation series, based on the autoregressive integrated moving average model on a national base, for the next four or eight years, is another interesting feature of the present study. Results indicate rising trends in the annual precipitation during 1990-2021, mostly non-significant and significant warming trends in the annual temperature, including sea surface temperature. The NAOI is highly correlated mostly with annual temperature, whereas the MOI does not affect the variation of annual precipitation and temperature. The results of the present study are in general agreement with the results of available studies in the literature, and they could be of high interest to national authorities and environmental unions/organizations, to help decision-makers face climate change.
Tema
Time Series; Arima; Cru Ts 4.05; Climate Change Impact; Climate Variability; Greece; Turkey; Cyprus; Israel; Lebanon
Idioma
eng
ISSN
ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236
